This letter was published in The Falkirk Herald yesterday.
There
are people who desire Scottish independence at any price. That is
their right. Those who take a more pragmatic approach should think
twice about demanding a second independence referendum in the event
of the UK voting to leave the EU.
It
may well be that, offered a choice between leaving the EU and
remaining, a majority of Scots would vote for Scotland to remain, but
that is not on offer. Scotland as such is not a member of the EU and
thus cannot remain a member if the UK leaves.
A
subsequently independent Scotland would have to negotiate for
admission as a new member and our application would be subject to
veto by Spain and other existing members worried about their own
separatists. The likelihood is we should end up outside both the UK
and the EU.
However,
suppose that, against the odds, we were to gain admission. The result
would be the erection of an EU border between Scotland and England.
Since a major reason for the UK's exit would be to cut EU
immigration, there could not be freedom of movement across that
border.
As
an EU member Scotland would not be allowed to negotiate a bilateral
trade agreement with the UK. The EU would negotiate for us and
whatever deal they negotiated would apply to all EU members. There
could be no special deals for Scotland.
EU
rules require all new members to join the Eurozone. Even if the UK
government were willing to allow a sterling monetary union to
continue after independence, it would not be allowed. How
many Scots really want to give up the pound and join a currency
system that has strangled economic growth, plunged its poorer members
into impossible debt and obliged its richer members to bail them out?
Given
that the 2013 White Paper Scotland's
Future looked
forward to an oil price of $113 per barrel and still managed to show
a projected fiscal deficit of £4.4 billion in the first year of
independence, (in other words around £1,000 per adult member of the
population), we may conclude that with oil prices currently in the
region of $33 the Scottish fiscal deficit would now be eye-wateringly
large. The present UK government's austerity would look like a
spending spree by comparison with the cuts that would be required.
Unless
the Scottish government reckons its people cannot do sums, the threat
of a second independence referendum can be little more than a paper
tiger designed to scare up extra votes for staying in the EU.
