Monday 27 January 2020

Why are we still talking about a 'no-deal' Brexit?


I find it interesting how the term ‘no-deal Brexit’ is being redefined. It originally meant the UK leaving the EU without a leaving deal.

Now that we have a leaving deal, this apparently does not count as a deal and the definition of ‘no deal’ has been switched to refer to a trade deal.

It is worth pointing out that the UK leaves the EU on January 31st. Despite arguably flouting the wording of Lisbon Article 50 by so doing, the EU declined to discuss trade relationships before the UK left. Therefore, under the trade agreement definition of ‘no-deal’, there was never any prospect of the UK leaving the EU any other way.

We are not leaving the EU on December 31st. This is the date of the expiry of the transition period, a euphemism for a period when, although outside the EU, the UK continues to observe all EU rules.

This period was originally scheduled to run from April 2018. The various parliamentary delays prevented the UK leaving the EU on schedule in March 2018, but did not extend the transition period. Hence there is less time for trade negotiations than was intended. This is arguably a good thing, but that’s beside the point.

Brexit means leaving the EU. It does not mean subsequently securing a trade deal with the EU. The UK cannot change its mind about leaving if a trade deal fails to materialise by December 31st because we shall by that time have been out of the EU for 11 months.

So whatever happens in December, it will not be a ‘no-deal Brexit’.