Nicola Sturgeon today
claims she has a cast-iron mandate for another Scottish Independence
referendum.
That mandate presumably
dates from the 2016 Holyrood election, when her government lost
overall control and became dependent on The Greens for a majority.
Yes, I know The Greens
favour independence, but I'm inclined to wonder whether their voters
had it top of their agenda when marking their crosses on the ballot
paper. Presumably, if it had been their priority, these voters could
just as easily have voted SNP.
Needless to say her
mandate does not date from the 2014 referendum, where the
nationalists lost by a 10% margin. At that time they claimed
referendums were a 'once in a generation' event. It now appears that
referendums will only cease once the SNP wins one, or alternatively
when they are no longer maintained in power by The Greens.
Looking at the
catastrophic mismanagement that ten years of SNP rule has brought to
Scotland's economy and basic public services, we can well understand
the need for another bout of tribalist shroud-trailing to distract
the electorate. Nicola Sturgeon's own popularity is at last begin to
flag too.
On the other hand the
SNP has still not come up with an alternative plan for a national
currency. Surely they won't try and run the busted flush of sharing
the pound sterling for a second time?
Moreover the oil price
on which the last projected independence budget relied has halved and
it is now reckoned that an independent Scotland would have a fiscal
crisis worse than that of Greece.
In the Middle Ages it
was traditional for the Scots to invade northern England whenever the
English were distracted by a European war, but reviving this
opportunistic policy during the Brexit negotiations is doubly
inappropriate.
Firstly it prevents
Scottish voters having a clear idea of what relationship with the EU
would be the alternative to independence. It still seems probable
that Spanish and Belgian vetoes would be deployed to prevent Scottish
membership either as a new member or a rump continuing member, so
Scots would be voting for a pig in a poke on both sides of the
ballot.
Secondly it complicates
the position for UK and EU Brexit negotiators, neither of whom could
be clear whether the UK government was negotiating for the whole
island.
The truth is that the
uncertainty caused by the Damocles sword hanging over the Scottish
economy will deter inward investment until the threat of another
referendum is removed.
And, perish the
thought, should the separatists ever gain their hearts' desire, the
outrage they claim to feel over being dragged out of the EU against
their will is likely to be as nothing compared to the outrage of half
the Scottish population dragged out of the UK against their will.
