In economic forecasting, it is standard
practice to project a range of possible outcomes, from the best to
the worst case with the most likely somewhere in between.
In the independence debate, the
separatists have consistently claimed that the best case scenario is
what will actually happen. They portray this as 'making a positive
case'.
Should any opponent point out that the
most likely outcome is actually considerably worse than than this, he
is accused of 'negative campaigning', whilst anyone who has the
temerity to suggest that the worst case is every bit as likely as the
best case is guilty of 'disgraceful scaremongering'.
The tone of the debate would be
improved if everyone accepted that in the real world things do not
always go as we wish them to go and other people do not necessarily
agree with our view of what is in their best interests. Any sensible
person hopes for the best but prepares for the worst.
It is a statement of the obvious that
the single minded pursuit of a new prize may very well lose us prizes
that we have already won.
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